The Met Office has given its first indications on the prospect of a ‘white Christmas’ this year, with its long-range forecasting models now covering the week of December 25.

The weather organisation deems a Christmas to be ‘white’ if at least one snowflake is observed at one of its weather stations.

This may be far from the Christmas card scenes that many of us think of when we hear the term, but can we look forward to snow this festive season?

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Will there be a ‘white Christmas’ in the north?

The Met Office’s current prediction for Christmas Day is that widespread snow is looking unlikely, including in Northern Ireland.

In fact, multiple forecasting models indicate that an area of high pressure is likely to sit to the south/south-west of Ireland on December 25 and temperatures could be slightly above average on the big day.

This could cause some unsettled weather in the north, depending on how low the area of high pressure ends up, but the Met Office says there ‘isn’t a strong signal for prolonged and severe cold’.

However, the current forecasts could change as we get closer to Christmas – longer range forecasts are less certain.

The Met Office can ‘accurately forecast if snow is likely on any given Christmas Day up to five days beforehand’.

“Certainly no signs of a strong signal for a white Christmas, but nothing could be ruled out right at this stage,” a spokesperson said.

What about the rest of Ireland?

Like the Met Office, Met Éireann is cautious about predicting the chances of a ‘white Christmas’ far in advance.

However, the area of high pressure is expected to lead to settled weather for many parts of the Republic.

“Current indications suggest the weather will settle down for the final week of December with high pressure the dominant feature,” Met Éireann said.

“Rainfall totals are forecast to be below the December average across the country. Mean air temperatures are forecast to trend slightly above the monthly norm.”

When was the last ‘white Christmas’?

While snowfall was last recorded in Northern Ireland on Christmas Day in 2022, the last widespread ‘white Christmas’ was in 2010’s ‘big freeze’.

According to the Met Office, that year was ‘extremely unusual’ as snow was reported on the ground at 83% of its stations – the highest amount ever recorded.

Since 1960, widespread snow cover was recorded on three other Christmas Days – 1981, 1995 and 2009.

The Met Office says that higher average temperatures brought about by climate change has ‘generally reduced the chances of a white Christmas’.