A poll tracking voters’ views on constitutional change reveals that support for the union has dropped below 50% for the first time.
The proportion of people who support Northern Ireland remaining in the UK has fallen by more than ten percentage points over the past decade and by almost five points since 2019, according to the same survey.
The figures published exclusively by The Irish News are contained in the Northern Ireland General Election Survey 2024, which shows support for Irish unity at 33.7%, an increase of more than five percentage points over the past five years.
The data also reveals that opinion on the constitutional question is finely balanced among the under 25s who expressed a preference, with the number respondents supporting Irish unity and remaining in the UK equal at 47.7%. Support for the union is greatest among the over 65s (61.8%).
The percentage of people wishing to remain in the UK is 48.6%, a drop of 4.9 percentage points compared to the corresponding survey in 2019 and the first time in this Economic and Social Research Council-funded survey that the figure represents less than half of voters.
The latest figure reveals a 10.5 point drop off in support for the union since 2015, when 59.1% said they believed Northern Ireland should remain part of the UK.
Nine years ago, support for Irish unity stood at 28.5%, dipping by almost one point in 2017 (27.6%) before increasing in 2019 to 28.3%.
The number of ‘Don’t Knows’ has fallen marginally from 15.2% in 2019 to 14% though this cohort continues to closely correspond to the difference between the pro- and anti-Irish unity blocs.
The University of Liverpool’s Professor Jon Tonge said that while the figures demonstrated that the constitutional debate was far from settled, it did not mean a border poll or a united Ireland were imminent
“Support for Northern Ireland remaining in the UK is now a minority taste – the first time across our five general election studies this has been the case,” he said.
“Backing for the constitutional status quo still exceeds that for a united Ireland by some distance but the gap has shrunk since Brexit, due more to falling support for the union than surging support for Irish unity - although the latter has grown. Moreover, the ‘Don’t Knows’ now almost equal the gap between the two sides.”
In terms of constitutional preference by party voted for in July’s election, 68.1% of Alliance supporters are in favour of remaining in the UK, compared to 31.2% who back Irish unity.
:::: The 2024 Northern Ireland General Election survey was conducted among a representative sample of 2,034 participants, with fieldwork undertaken by Social Market Research Belfast between July 19-August 27 2024. The margin or error is 3.1+/–.
