In the immediate aftermath of the Easter Rising of 1916, WB Yeats observed that ‘one knows nothing of the future except that it must be very unlike the past’.
That certainly applies to the second Trump presidency. It will indeed be completely unlike the past four years under Joe Biden but, more importantly, it will also differ from the first Trump term.
That’s because, unlike in 2017, Donald Trump now enjoys complete mastery over the Republican Party, has stocked his new administration with loyalists, and has the invaluable experience of having been in the Oval Office just four years ago.
In the wake of a spectacular electoral comeback, there is far less pushback against Trump than there was eight years ago.
Then he could credibly be seen as an aberration, the product of a fit of pique on the part of voters.
Now there is no doubt that Trump is what a majority of Americans wanted. They can have been under no illusions about what they were choosing. Non-Trump voters are busy adjusting to that new reality.
Trump’s undiluted self-confidence has naturally raised expectations among his fans. And that brings its own challenges because, surprise, surprise, no government ever achieves all of what it has promised in the heat of electoral battle.
The workaday world tends to be resistant to the promptings of even the most powerful politicians. America cannot be renovated with the stroke of a presidential pen.
Inflationary pressures are hanging around stickily. Bond markets and stock exchanges will have their ups and downs and will be at least semi-detached from the cut and thrust of the political fray.
This Trump presidency is far better prepared than his earlier one and they clearly plan to hit the ground sprinting.
While we normally think about the first hundred days of an administration, in this case expect a dramatic first hundred hours with a blizzard of pre-prepared executive orders flexing the new president’s considerable muscle.
There won’t of course be millions of immigrants snatched from the streets, but we will witness some dramatic moves.
Deportations that would normally happen under the radar will be enthusiastically flaunted as a comforting signal to Trump’s base, and as an in-your-face warning to those tempted to cross America’s borders illegally.
Americans will be watching warily to see if he fulfils his threat to go after ‘the enemy within’.
America is a litigious society. Expect a swathe of legal challenges to aspects of the Trump agenda and remember that, while the Supreme Court has been stacked with conservatives, in the lower courts there are many judges who will decline to go with the flow of the Trump policy agenda.
The Republicans have majorities in Congress, but in the House of Representatives it’s by a sliver, and that includes some notoriously fractious individuals.
The mid-term election campaign will start 12 months from now, with the Republicans very likely to lose their slender House majority in November 2026.
Trump clearly plans to make tax reductions a priority but that will require lots of onerous pirouetting in Congress where Democrats will do everything they can to block what they will style tax breaks for billionaires.
Images of Trump surrounded by the super wealthy will not necessarily please the MAGA base if they don’t get to feel an economic dividend of their own.
The world is agog about what might be coming round the bend from Trump.
His forays on Greenland and Panama have taught countries to expect the unexpected.
Given his affection for tariffs, misguided though that may be, it is hard to see how they can be avoided.
The aim should be to avoid a tit-for-tat escalation. I expect that the European Commission will have a package of trade concessions designed to appeal to the Trump administration.
European leaders have a job to do too in building links with Trump, who values personal connections with his political peers.
From Ireland, we have seen Enda Kenny and Leo Varadkar build a rapport with him during his first term. He’s actually quite well disposed to this country on the strength of his experience as owner of Doonbeg Golf Club in County Clare.
We have already seen a Trump effect with the ceasefire in Gaza, but how will he react if things start to go awry between Israel and Palestine during his watch?
His instinct will be to back Israel to the hilt, but he is a war-shy president and that will make him want to keep that rickety peace train on track.
On Ukraine, he will benefit from war weariness on both sides and, if he can cajole Russia and Ukraine into a deal that preserves Ukrainian sovereignty and provides them with credible security guarantees, then Europeans will breathe a deep sigh of relief.
Although Trump is now more of a known quantity, the jury remains out on what kind of presidency he means to run.
Is he dead set on being a disrupter and a change-maker or will he take a lap of honour, basking in the glory of being the comeback king?
I accept that the former looks the more likely option, but I wonder. Does he have the stamina to attempt a root-and-branch overhaul a country that has made him so phenomenally rich and famous?
Do his billionaire bros truly want to shake up a world they already largely command?
In the coming four years, Donald Trump may or may not be America’s ace card but, until he becomes part of history in 2029, the country that will soon celebrate 250 years of its independence will be Trump’s America.
:: Daniel Mulhall is a former Irish Ambassador to the US and author of Pilgrim Soul: WB Yeats and the Ireland of his Time (New Island Books, 2023). X: @DanMulhall; Bluesky: danmulhall.bsky.social