As the final results from the Republic’s general election emerge, attention is turning to the formation of the next government. It is almost certain that it will once again consist of a Fianna Fáil-Fine Gael coalition and any additional support required will be negotiated in the days ahead.
The prospect of a broad left coalition was never seriously a possibility and with a fair wind, there should be a government in place by Christmas.
Although most of the post-election analysis suggests support for stability and continuity, a more detailed examination of the election results suggests a growing apathy or even disillusionment with Irish politics.
Only 60% of the electorate voted, which means that the same number of people stayed at home as voted for Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael combined. While this might be interpreted as a reluctance to vote on a dark November evening, the turnout was down from almost 63% in 2020, which was about 2% lower than in 2016.
Political apathy is an emerging force in Irish elections. This suggests a growing distrust of the political process and possibly even of politicians, a trend which was confirmed by electoral support for Gerry Hutch. His surprisingly good performance appears to have been largely a protest vote.
Apathy also seems to extend to the broader national issue of Irish unity. No party highlighted it during the election campaign. Support for Sinn Féin, the most vociferous advocates of a united Ireland fell by over 5% – the largest decrease in support for any party.
This is in sharp contrast to northern elections which are largely fought on arguments for and against the border. The demand for Irish unity seems to be restricted to northern nationalists, which suggests that its achievement may not be as close as they claim.
Although opposition to the two main government parties increased, it did not transfer to the largest opposition party, Sinn Féin. Instead, it went largely to smaller parties such as the Social Democrats and Labour, as well as to independents.
Those who voted against the outgoing government did so in a manner which appeared to favour change, but not just yet. Distrust extends beyond the government to the wider political process.
Thus the first challenge facing the incoming administration is to rebuild trust with the electorate. If it fails to do so, Irish politics will continue to fragment to the point where its relevance to everyday life will no longer be recognised.
It is up to the electorate in a democracy to make its own choices, but when it increasingly chooses indifference, democracy is in danger. The first challenge for the incoming government is to overcome that danger.
