Two things are certain about today’s general election in the United States: if Kamala Harris loses, she will concede gracefully; if Donald Trump loses, he will claim that he won and his cult worshipers will not wait until January 6 for their insurrection. If Trump wins, the United States as we know it is lost.
So there is a lot at stake. The polls have been gnomic, suggesting a race that is too tight to call. But there are some straws in the wind – outliers – which suggest the gap between Harris and Trump is greater that the pollsters and media care to admit.
We don’t have long to wait. But by god, it’s nail-biting. This poll has consequences not just for the US but for a global community that needs an adult in the White House who is prepared to work with allies to tackle some of the key threats to global peace and security: climate change, the war in Ukraine, the slaughter of Palestinians in the Middle East, the increasing belligerence of Putin, the power-play by China, and the corruption of public discourse by malign multi-billionaires intent on wielding personal power on a trans-national basis. And that is only the beginning of a very long list.
Whatever happens over the next few days and weeks, we must be thankful that the commander-in-chief is Joe Biden. A defeated Trump will not be commanding his troops from the White House, and that may make all the difference.
I have long been of the view that Harris will win the popular vote but could lose the electoral college. I pray I’m wrong.
The founding fathers decided in their wisdom that the people could not be trusted to directly elect the president. But their ‘safeguard’ against the election of a naked populist has backfired. As the 2016 poll demonstrated, the people can be trusted. Trump lost the popular vote – Clinton secured some three million more votes. But the orange man-baby won 304 electoral college votes, compared with Clinton’s 227.
In effect the right to elect the president has been handed to a handful of marginal states.
Alongside the long list of global challenges, Harris – should she win – needs to use her authority to reform the constitution. The presidency should be decided on the basis of one person, one vote.
She needs too to reform the corrupt Supreme Court, which has been hijacked by the right. The easiest way is to increase the number of Supreme Court justices, and to move to fixed terms.
For that she will need to carry the House of Representatives (all of whom are up for election) and take control of the Senate (a third of senators are facing the electorate). It’s a big ask, but a strong vote for Harris (assuming the pollsters are wrong) should bring in Democrat congressmen and women in tight races across the country.
The prospect of a Harris presidency is tantalising – she would be the first women president, something which has been too long in coming. In a country which has taken misogyny to the level of a state religion, that will a remarkable achievement.
Let us not fool ourselves though. In global terms, Harris is a small-c conservative – not the rabid communist claimed by Trump – and she has risked alienating younger voters by being too cautious on Gaza.
But her instincts are right on social justice, healthcare, women’s rights and a myriad of other policy areas. With her own mandate and a full term ahead of her, she may well be emboldened to see Netanyahu down in Israel too.
What we can be certain of is that her opponent would only cozy up to Putin and further enflame the Middle East. He would kow-tow to the billionaires, and risk his nation’s health by incinerating the Obama reforms and rejecting science in favour of quackery.
As the election has progressed it has become clearer and clearer that Trump is unfit for office (in truth, he never was). The walls are closing in.
Increasingly unhinged, and with the law coming after him, we must hope and pray that the US electorate finally puts an end to his malignant reign of terror on down-trodden and marginalised people.
And should she be in a position to do so, Harris should not pardon him of his crimes in and out of office.
As they vote today, US electors must look Trump in the eye and say: “Ask not for whom the bell tolls, it tolls for you.” And may his cult go down with him.
