There have been regular light-hearted claims over the years that Ireland might become America’s 51st state, but, given the recent outbursts from Donald Trump, we may need to be careful what we wish for.
Mr Trump has engaged in his familiar mix of threats and boasts in advance of his presidential inauguration, switched due to adverse weather to an indoor location today, and is still brazenly insisting that he is ready to seize other territories.
The first convicted felon ever to enter the White House has spoken openly over recent weeks about the prospect of taking over both Greenland and the Panama Canal for what he described as reasons of “economic security”.
Mr Trump has also repeatedly suggested that Canada, geographically the world’s second largest country, could become part of the United States, although as ever it is difficult to know how serious he is.
He will obviously not be sending his Marines into Dublin, but, although he already owns property in Co Clare, there is every prospect that he will launch an economic offensive with Ireland included in his list of key targets.
Howard Lutnick, who has been nominated by Mr Trump as his commerce secretary, is on record as saying it is “nonsense that Ireland of all places runs a trade surplus at our expense… when we end this nonsense, America will be a truly great country again”.
This is an clear an indication as we are going to get that the favoured status which Joe Biden was happy to extend to his ancestral homeland, leaving Ireland in an historically unprecedented position of financial strength, may not last much longer.
It has been well documented that around a quarter of Ireland’s overall tax take is derived from foreign-owned multinational companies, many from the US and predominantly in the technology, chemical and pharmaceutical sectors.
US corporations employ hundreds of thousands of people in Ireland, mainly in the south, with many other companies depending on their exports across the Atlantic, so we are moving into very alarming territory.
Trump has hinted about either abruptly changing US corporation tax systems or imposing major tariffs of up to 20% on goods from EU countries, developments which could have hugely negative implications for Ireland.
A careful lobbying process will need to follow, and it is possible that he may develop a more measured approach when he accepts the scale of the national and international responsibilities which he faces.
Incoming taoiseach Micheál Martin was correct when he warned about the dangers of overreacting to Trump’s sabre rattling, but governments around the world still need to prepare for a prolonged period of instability.
