“It’s too early, man.”
Cole Palmer’s facial expression said even more than his few words when asked if his Chelsea side were in the English Premier League title race along with Arsenal.
Sardonic twists and turns of his head, an almost contemptuous look as he rolled his eyes, showing his disdain for that suggestion.
Yet he didn’t actually say they weren’t. And nor should he have.
My own ‘rule of thirds’ suggests that there’s no point assessing a league campaign until at least that percentage of matches has been played.
Thirteen games in, it’s clear that leaders Liverpool are strong favourites – but those two London clubs are not out of the running. And nor are champions Manchester City.
Every season is different.
Even the last four, which have all ended with Manchester City lifting the trophy, a period of unprecedented dominance, have had varying storylines.
In 2020/21 reigning champions Liverpool were still going strong at Christmas time until too many central defensive injuries cost them dearly. Deploying midfielders Jordan Henderson and Fabinho at the back for a time, they went on an historic losing streak at Anfield and City easily regained the trophy.
In 2021/22, however, City were pushed all the way by Liverpool, even needing a remarkable comeback from 2-0 down on the final day to beat Aston Villa and pip the Reds by a point.
Arsenal emerged as the main challengers in 2022/23 and in fact led the table for the vast majority of that season, but did not have the squad depth to sustain their push in the end as City overtook them.
Last season, it was a three-way tussle between City, Liverpool, and the Gunners – the Reds fell away as injuries caught up with them and the Blues of Manchester had just too much for Arsenal. Even the third best runners-up record in Premier League history was not enough for Mikel Arteta’s men.
Four triumphs for City, but no foregone conclusions, and that’s true of this season too, with two-thirds of the games still to be played.
With demands on players increasing, keeping key players fit will be a major concern for the contenders. As much as it has become ‘a squad game’, most clubs still have a fairly obvious strongest side – and include star men.
Arsenal do look over-reliant on their captain and playmaker Martin Odegaard – but the same could be said about Liverpool and Mo Salah, while the absence of Ballon d’Or-winning midfielder Rodri is definitely having an adverse impact on City. Indeed the champions have been sorely afflicted so far.
Liverpool have had their own injury difficulties, missing for weeks their first-choice goalkeeper (Alisson Becker) and most clinical centre-forward (Diogo Jota), as well as versatile midfield/attacking option Harvey Elliott and their only summer signing, Federico Chiesa.
Yet it’s not luck that has given Liverpool such quality back-ups as Caoimhin Kelleher and Conor Bradley, with both Irish lads brought through the youth ranks, while they kept Joe Gomez despite interest from other clubs in the transfer window.
On Sunday at Anfield Manchester City’s bench included players on whom they’d spent well over £300m – Jack Grealish, Josko Gvardiol, Kevin de Bruyne, Jeremy Doku, Savinho, and Ederson.
So only a fool would write City off, given the resilience they’ve demonstrated in recent years, and all the talent available to them.
Similarly, Arsenal have recorded 84- and 89-point seasons and strengthened in the summer, bringing in defender Riccardo Calfiori, midfielder Mikel Merino, and winger Raheem Sterling.
Chelsea let Sterling go on loan because they have arguably the deepest squad of all, although it does lack some experience given how many young prospects they have acquired.
Being in the third tier of European competition, the Europa Conference League, compared to Champions League involvement for those other three clubs, obviously makes life easier for the Stamford Bridge outfit.
Chelsea boss Enzo Maresca is basically able to field two different sides, one in the League and another in Europe and the cup competitions. That lesser physical and mental load could really benefit them as the season rolls on.
The ability to rest players is important, with those playing twice a week more likely to get injured or under-perform.
Fixtures are another factor.
It’s become a running joke among Liverpool fans that ‘they haven’t played anyone above them in the table’, but it is true that they’ve had an easier programme so far than City and certainly Arsenal.
Still, a nine-point lead is not to be sniffed at and allows for some slip-ups by Arne Slot’s side.
The calculators usually only come out in the last few weeks of the campaign, but they’re being reached for already. It may well be that a points tally in the mid-80s will be enough to be crowned champions this season.
That might mean Liverpool only needing 50 points from their remaining 26 matches, while Arsenal and Chelsea would probably require 60 – and City 62.
Pep Guardiola’s players have repeatedly gone on such runs, but they are an older, more tired team. The decision to let striker Julian Alvarez leave in the summer looks increasingly ill-judged, although injuries to several defenders and midfielders haven’t helped them either.
Yet back closer to full strength, with more players match-fit, City can still move into a challenging position.
Like City, Arsenal will feel they’ve had their bad patch and can put together a long unbeaten streak to narrow the current nine-point gap to the leaders.
Liverpool are in pole position – but there’s a long, winding road with plenty of bumps along the way to navigate yet. Any more defensive injuries, with Konate, Bradley, and Tsimikas out for some time, would be seriously worrying.
The title heading back to Anfield?
“It’s too early, man.”
