How might extreme weather affect what we’re able to eat in the future?

Extreme weather will continue to have a significant affect on the food we produce domestically, a Government report has warned.

While the UK’s overall balance of food trade and production is broadly stable and self-sufficiency is largely unchanged in 20 years, extreme weather will have a particular impact on arable crops, fruit and vegetables.

The news comes from the latest three-yearly report on food security in the UK, which warned that rising temperatures “represent significant overall risks to UK food security”.

“Food security in general is affected by extreme weather and the climate crisis – the two are linked,” explains Leon Ballin, programme manager at Sustainable Food Places.

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And few people are feeling that impact more keenly than dairy farmer Patrick Holden, who is the CEO of the Sustainable Food Trust. Speaking from his farm in west Wales, he says: “We’re in day five of the longest power cut we’ve had here in 51 years” after Storm Darragh, meaning everything is currently operating on generators.

With extreme weather events, the impacts might not be immediately felt in the supermarkets – but the signs could be there.

“At the moment, you probably won’t see changes in what you see in the shops – but what you will see is with some things, the price will go through the roof,” explains Ballin.

“So where a farmer has grown, say, asparagus or potatoes or whatever it is – when a UK farmer or farm has been really hit by the poor weather, then they’ll be less supply from the UK. Prices will [then] go up, [and we’ll] probably need more imports. So what you’ll see is prices going up, and you’ll also see more imported food that we could have grown here.”

An increase in imported food not only has an environmental impact, but it also could put us in a precarious position.

“Food supply chains seem to be impregnable, but in fact, they’re incredibly vulnerable to prolonged external shocks,” says Holden.

“The external shocks could be war in Ukraine, or it could be a climate event, or it could be trade stuff… We’ve relied for too long on being a trading nation which thinks we can buy food from anywhere, but I think things are going to look very much more fragile in terms of food security in the future.”

Both Holden and Ballin suggest more food should be produced in the UK to combat this potential issue, with Holden adding: “I hope that [the food is] not just produced at any cost, but produced in ways which are climate, nature and people-friendly.”

Plus, consumers can help. “Everybody needs to think more about the story behind the food they eat. We need to know more about it,” urges Holden. “If you go in a supermarket today and try to buy food with a story, you’ll go away with an empty trolley – because you can’t tell most of the food we eat, [it] comes from globalised sources, mostly from fairly intensive farming.”

Ballin adds: “Vote with your wallet, vote with your mouth for the food system that you want to see. If you want to see a more resilient food system, then buying more food that’s had a lot less chemicals, that’s more local – when I say local, I mean the UK, it doesn’t have to be just down the road.

“You can help change the system – it isn’t broken, but it could be heading that way. At the moment, we don’t have a national food policy – so without that, unfortunately it’s up to us, people who eat the food, to make the changes.

“Food isn’t like anything else. If there’s not enough PlayStations at Christmas, then you might get a few disappointed children – but not enough food has very dire consequences.”

Holden cites the Feeding Britain From The Ground Up report published by the Sustainable Food Trust in 2022, which suggests how we can shift our diets to include not only more locally grown ingredients, but also to support how farming might be changing in the UK.

As grain production is increasingly threatened – this is highlighted in the Food Security Report 2024, which says the published first estimate of the 2024 cereal and oilseed harvest shows a 22% decrease in harvested wheat from 2023 – Holden says we can change our eating patterns.

Grains are largely used “to feed intensive livestock”, he says. “So it means no more cheap chicken – that should become a thing of the past. You can still have chicken as a treat, and I’m old enough to remember when it was like that. I was in a middle class family in London, we had chicken once a month as a treat because it was really expensive – and that’s how it should be.”

So what long-term changes need to be made?

“We definitely need a policy and a strategy,” says Ballin. “It’s bonkers to think we have an energy strategy or a housing strategy, but we haven’t got a food strategy – but it’s probably the most important product we buy, it’s the one that keeps us alive.”

Holden adds: “We need to build resilience into our food systems – a more resilient, climate-friendly food system. The question is: what changes do farmers need to make, and what do we need to do to accommodate to those changes? That’s a big debate at the moment.”

A Government spokesperson said: “Our cross-Government food strategy will make sure our food system can continue to feed the nation, realise its potential for economic growth, protect the planet, and nourish individuals, now and in the future.”